Tuesday, November 22, 2005

History Lesson

April 1968

I was 16. LBJ was president, Hubert Humphrey, vice president.

It had been 3 years and 5 months since the Congress had authorized the use of US combat forces in Vietnam. Over 20,000 US troops had died or been captured, including more than 1500 in the week of January 31, the Tet Offensive.

Johnson's popularity had plummeted from 80% when he took office upon the death of President Kennedy, to below 40%. By March, he would only have the support of 30% of the American public, with his handling of the war at 26%.

A relatively unknown Democrat, Senator Eugene McCarthy, had nearly beaten Johnson in the New Hampshire primary.

His credibility having evaporated, Johnson announced on March 31 that he would not seek another term as president. His stated intention was to bring the war to an end, without the distraction of an election campaign. After Johnson's withdrawal from the campaign, Humphrey was IN the race.

Humphrey seemed likely to be elected as Johnson's successor. If not Humphrey, some other Democrat. since the Republicans were still strong supporters of the unpopular war, at odds with the majority of the people.

So, to summarize:
1. The war had lasted too long, with too many casualties, and too few positive results.
2. Johnson had been forced out of the presidential campaign by public opinion.
3. The Republicans were seen as more hawkish. more likely to prolong the war than the Democrats.

So, what did Humphrey do? He continued to support Johnson, and Johnson's policies, despite severe criticism from members of both parties.

It was at that point that Senator Robert Kennedy of New York became a candidate for president.

Kennedy ran a strong campaign and gathered delegates throughout the Spring. His win in the California primary was not enough to win the nomination outright, but, since Humphrey did not have a majority of the delegates, Kennedy still had a chance at the nomination in Chicago, as he told cheering supporters in Los Angeles. "It's on to Chicago, and let's win there!" were Kennedy's last words before he was gunned down.

Even in Chicago, Humphrey continued to support the war, but given the lack of a single strong anti-war candidate, he won the nomination.

The peace candidate..the PEACE candidate that year, was the Republican nominee, Richard Nixon, who claimed to have a plan to end the war.

Eventually, Humphrey began to take more of an anti-war stance. He began to eat into Nixon's poll numbers which were showing him in the lead. The November election was one of the closest in history, but Humphrey failed to become president. Many analysts believe that if he would have come out sooner against the war, he would have won by a wide margin.

The peace candidate, Richard Nixon, won, of course. A gradual withdrawal of troops began, as South Vietnamese troops were trained to replace the American ones. 11,527 Americans died in Vietnam (and Cambodia) in 1969. 6,065 died in 1970. 2,348 died in 1971. 561 died in 1972. when the pullout was completed. 671 more were missing in action.

All this as a warning to New York's junior senator and possible Presidential candidate. You will never know when it's too late. Until it's all over.

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

How Long?

Compare:

3 years, 8 months, and 9 days = length of time from Pearl Harbor to V-J day.

4 years, 2 months, and 7 days since September 11, 2001 - the beginning of the "War on Terr'ism"

Results:

WWII - Germany, Italy and Japan driven to unconditional surrender.

W.O.T. - ummmmm....